Let's play guess the market share for Windows Phone in This Years

Written By Mekhels Linxets on Tuesday, January 3, 2012 | 10:58 AM

We will see a lot of "Windows Phone smartphone market share will be X% in 2012" story within the next week or two as the author moves through retrospectives and opinions, and Digitimes pitches with their predictions today (they went to 6.2%, if you track). One thing to remember about all this ... no one can predict the future, or what will happen on any platform. "Events, my son" will push the percentage of smoothing the curve and follow the trend of mathematics. But we can have fun making our own guesses.

Classic phrase "historical trends is not an indicator of future performance, the stock can go up and down" applies just as much for 'analyst statements in company reports as well as to predict how many calls, that we have no idea about (because they have not been announced), will to sell. It is possible that one of the current mobile operating systems can suddenly surge in sales - after all, a single appearance on Oprah Winfrey's enough for the author of many books to become best-sellers ... or fall off a cliff, perhaps because of a patent lawsuit to stop selling the complete portfolio.

We do not know what is planned by the manufacturer of the handset, and you can be sure that many of the innovations that will be added to the "touch-screen tablet" standard that many people now expect in smartphones. Specification can always be improved, and camera technology is still viewed as the primary consideration in the purchase.

ZTE and low-cost producers have a disproportionate role to play also in the share market - high end handsets can get reviews and awards, but the low end is where most of the figures will be sold. Where their loyalty lies in 2012 also may have an impact.

What about areas such as NFC technology, LTE networks, mobile payments, new battery technology, or something as simple as an external microphone jack? Picture the impact of a killer piece of software that comes out is locked into a single platform - what will happen to Phone Windows if the mobile version of Halo appears that knocks the socks off the hardcore gamer?

All ideas, all potential modifiers, but people can still come up with a percentage of concrete? Sure, that's what humans do ....

So let's try a little experiment. What do you think the market share of Windows Phone will be at the end of 2012? Give us your percentage, and what factors will have the most impact on the final sum. There is no prize, but I think we'll all be interested to see what everyone sees. [source]